Immigration politics hit the Hill

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Congress’ first bill of the year could foreshadow how much political reality may affect the thinking of Senate Democrats.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., moved quickly to schedule a vote on a House-passed stand-alone bill that would provide for stricter enforcement measures against undocumented migrants who commit crimes in the United States.

The Laken Riley Act is named for a 22-year-old Georgia woman murdered last year by an undocumented immigrant, who had been released after an arrest. The bill did not come up for debate in the Senate when Democrat Charles E. Schumer was majority leader, although it did pass the House with bipartisan support, including from two Democrats who are now members of Schumer’s caucus.

In the House, 48 Democrats joined all Republicans in backing the measure earlier this week. And as Chris Johnson reports for Roll Call, enough Senate Democrats appear to be on board to get clear of an initial filibuster threat.

“I expect that this bill will have enough votes from both parties to proceed,” Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer said on the floor Thursday. “If we get on the bill, Democrats want to have a robust debate where we can offer amendments and improve the bill.”

Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego said he would vote for the legislation and signed on as a co-sponsor. Gallego and fellow Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan are former House members who backed a version of the bill before their election to the Senate last fall. Observers will also be watching how vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection in 2026 vote on the legislation — and any other measures down the road on which President-elect Donald Trump states a position.

Those senators include Georgia’s Jon Ossoff, who plans to support the bill, a point highlighted Thursday morning in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s politics newsletter.

While Thursday’s Senate vote is for cloture on proceeding to the measure (and Slotkin says she’s voting “yes” with hope for an amendment process), the bill appears to have a path to passage.

Starting gate

Heavy lift for Senate Democrats: The party that controls the White House typically loses seats in midterm elections, but minority Senate Democrats will face an unforgiving map in 2026. We took an early look at some of the senators who may be vulnerable.

Blue states and Blue Dogs: Meanwhile, in the House, ideological divisions and new district lines are some of the factors shaping the 2026 landscape.

VA special: Virginia on Tuesday hosted the nation’s first special elections since Trump’s victory, and the results played to form, offering few signs of political change since November. Democrats held on to a pair of state legislative seats in Loudoun County, while Republicans retained a state Senate seat in Central Virginia, keeping the commonwealth’s legislature in Democratic hands. The contests were triggered by the election to Congress of former state Sens. Suhas Subramanyam, a Democrat, and John McGuire, a Republican.

Speaker fight in the rearview: Speaker Mike Johnson held on to the gavel last week in a high-drama showdown that saw two conservatives change their votes to support him after taking calls from Trump. On the CQ Budget podcast, our colleagues David Lerman and Jim Saksa discussed what Johnson had to do to keep his job and what it foretells about the legislative battles to come this year, including the challenges of using the budget reconciliation process to pass Trump’s agenda.

Super committee: With all the talk about cutting spending, Roll Call Editor-in-Chief Jason Dick takes us on a trip down memory lane to the days of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, the panel perhaps better known as the super committee. Three Democratic members of the panel are still in Congress: Sens. Patty Murray and Chris Van Hollen and Rep. James E. Clyburn. For more, check out the latest “Political Theater” podcast, where Dick talks to Lerman and CQ Roll Call Managing Editor Peter Cohn about all things budget.

Remembering Jimmy Carter: Commemorations to honor the 39th president, which included a lying-in-state at the Capitol and a state funeral at Washington National Cathedral, conclude Thursday with a private interment in his hometown of Plains, Ga.

ICYMI

Gov watch: Several key 2026 gubernatorial contests have started coming into focus, although all are in their nascent phases. In Arizona, Trump said he would back Republican Karrin Taylor Robson if she takes on Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. Taylor Robson, who lost a bid for the 2022 GOP gubernatorial nomination to Kari Lake, said she was “beyond honored” to have the president-elect’s support. In Colorado, where incumbent Jared Polis is term-limited, state Attorney General Phil Weiser kicked off a bid last week to succeed his fellow Democrat. In Florida, former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz told the Tampa Bay Times he’s “starting to think about running for governor.” In Michigan, Republican Mike Cox, a former attorney general, is exploring a run for the state’s top office. And in Kansas, Republican Secretary of State Scott Schwab announced a bid to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.

SLF staffing up: Axios reports that Alex Latcham, a Trump campaign staffer, will be executive director of the Senate Leadership Fund, Republicans’ top Senate super PAC. Former Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner was previously announced as the SLF board chair.

Comeback chatter: Democratic former Rep. Matt Cartwright, who lost his reelection bid in northeast Pennsylvania to Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr., said he’s undecided on a rematch, telling The Scranton Times-Tribune that he “won’t make a decision for another month or so.” In the meantime, he’s agreed to teach a government and politics seminar at his alma mater, Hamilton College. And in Washington state, Republican Jerrod Sessler tells the Tri-City Herald he expects to fundraise for a third challenge to Rep. Dan Newhouse, one of two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021.

Her honor? Former Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Calif., announced Wednesday that she’s running for mayor of Oakland. If she wins, she’d follow the same path as her predecessor in the House, former Rep. Ronald V. Dellums, who served a single term as the city’s mayor from 2007 to 2011.

Fire fallout: Add Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass to the list of politicians who have come under criticism for being away from their constituents during a crisis. Bass, a Democratic former congresswoman, was in Ghana as part of a presidential delegation when the Palisades fire broke out. She returned to the city on Wednesday.

Not-so-honest Gabe: An Indiana Republican who ran for Congress last year will plead guilty to falsifying campaign finance reports, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Indiana said Wednesday. Gabriel Whitley, whose slogan was “Honest Gabe for Congress,” lost the GOP primary in the 7th District. According to the U.S. attorney’s office, Whitley “admitted that he lied to the FEC in three separate reports about hundreds of thousands of dollars in contributions from supporters and loans from himself.”

New senators incoming: Ohio Lt. Gov. Jon Husted appears to be the leading candidate to succeed Vice President-elect JD Vance in the Senate, NBC News reports. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine will appoint a replacement senator after Vance resigns, which is expected to happen before Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration. In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis says he’s undecided on his pick to succeed Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, who appears set to be confirmed as Trump’s secretary of State, but Politico reports that state Attorney General Ashley Moody appears to be the favorite. The two seats will be on the ballot next year for the remaining two years of Vance’s and Rubio’s terms.

What we’re reading

Stu says: Roll Call political analyst Stuart Rothenberg takes a look at the 2026 fight for control of the narrowly divided House. While Republicans hold only a narrow majority in the chamber, Democratic opportunities to make gains could be limited, Stu writes.

Millions for Cherfilus-McCormick: Our friend Jacob Rubashkin at Inside Elections flags this story from the Tallahassee Democrat about how the health care company that Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick ran before coming to Congress allegedly received overpayments from the state of Florida of more than $5.7 million for work related to COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. Rubashkin has done leading reporting on another scandal involving the congresswoman, who remains the subject of a House Ethics inquiry.

The archbishop and the president: The National Catholic Reporter offers a primer on Cardinal Robert McElroy, whom Pope Francis selected as Washington’s new archbishop about two weeks before Trump’s inauguration. McElroy, who holds a doctorate in political science from Stanford, has called for the “radical inclusion” in the church of LBGTQ and divorced and remarried Catholics and said mass deportations of undocumented immigrants would be “incompatible” with church doctrine.

‘Squad’ on the right? Jewish Insider looks at a group of conservative Republicans who could play a powerful role in determining the fate of legislation related to Israel and antisemitism. Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie has been the most consistent member of the House Republican Conference to oppose pro-Israel legislation, but he’s been joined by other Republicans on occasion.

Spanberger’s campaign pivot: Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who’s running for Virginia governor, talked to The New York Times about her time in Congress, saying, “The worst part is the chaos.” In a Richmond Times-Dispatch op-ed earlier this month, she touted her bipartisan approach to lawmaking. Spanberger is the favorite for the Democratic nomination to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears is the front-runner for the GOP nod, while former Republican Rep. Denver Riggelman is mulling an independent bid for either governor or lieutenant governor, The Washington Post reported last week.

Selling President Carter: The New Republic interviews 90-year-old Gerald Rafshoon, an ad executive who served as White House communications director under Carter and helped sell the former peanut farmer and nuclear physicist to the American people.

The count: 35

As America’s most recent farmer-president is laid to rest, the new 119th Congress boasts 35 lawmakers (26 House members and nine senators) claiming an agricultural background, according to CQ Roll Call data compiled by the Brookings Institution. That’s the most since the 99th Congress convened in 1985 with 38 such members.

The agriculture-linked lawmakers sworn in last week are a heavily Republican bunch, with just four being Democrats. The 31 GOP lawmakers range from the Senate’s most senior member, Iowa’s Charles E. Grassley, to its soon-to-be most junior denizen: West Virginia’s Jim Justice, a coal and agriculture magnate who was until 2021 estimated by Forbes to be the richest resident of his state. Justice is expected to resign the governorship next week to take his place in the Senate.

— by Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly

Nathan’s notes

Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales looks at how the declining significance of personal brands has hurt Senate Democrats and could be a warning sign for senators seeking reelection in competitive states next year. According to Inside Elections’ Vote Above Replacement metric, losing Democratic Sens. Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio ran well ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris — but it was nowhere close to enough in either contest.

Coming up

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will host a forum for candidates running to chair the Democratic National Committee next week, according to a source familiar with the matter. Punchbowl News first reported on the forum Thursday.

Candidates looking to succeed outgoing DNC Chair Jaime Harrison include former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler, Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party Chair Ken Martin, New York state Sen. James Skoufis, and author and former presidential candidate Marianne Williamson.