US takes huge tourism hit from one key country

New geopolitical events around Venezuela and Greenland have pushed President Donald Trump’s references to Canada as a “51st state” and targeting of Canada with tariffs somewhat into the background.

Still, Canadians continue to protest the current administration’s hostile stance toward their country with significantly lower travel numbers.

In November 2025, the last month for which travel numbers have so far been released, the number of Canadians returning home from trips to the U.S. by plane was down by 19.3%. Car trip returns were also down by 28.6% in the 11th consecutive month of such decreases.

A recent report from the U.S. Travel Association now predicts that the decline in both Canadian and Mexican visitors will cost the U.S. travel industry more than $5.7 billion.

These declines are already showing in terms of the routes Canadian airlines choose to run and how many seats they cut. According to flight log data from OAG Aviation, cited by The Travel, Canadian airlines are running 10% fewer seats on flights to the U.S. for the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year.

This average includes a 19% flight-reduction capacity by Calgary-based WestJet, a 7% drop for flag carrier Air Canada, and a 58% decline for Edmonton-based low-cost carrier Flair Airlines. The total results in more than 450,000 fewer passengers flown, or approximately 5,000 seats cut per day.

Related: Canada strengthens US travel advisory for second time in one month

In exchange, the airlines are ramping up flights to other destinations such as Mexico, Costa Rica, and major European cities to which there has been an influx of Canadians redirecting their travel dollars.

“If we can derisk this a little bit and move and be a bit proactive and move capacity into other sectors [where] we see strength, I think that’s the right move right now in this context,” Mark Galardo, Air Canada’s executive vice president, revenue and network planning, told investors at a press conference in March 2025.

WestJet released a similar statement saying it “continuously evaluates and adjusts its schedule to meet demand.” Cities such as Los Angeles, Atlanta, and Newark have seen some of the biggest airline seat cuts.