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The Houston Astros face a dilemma of what to do at the August 3 trade deadline. They currently sit at 49-54 and are three games out of first place in the AL West. The question is whether to buy, sell, or stand pat. A lot will be determined by the way they play over the next week’s worth of games, but looking back 10 years to 2016 at Houston’s former trade deadline deal might tell a story of what to do this year.
Ten years ago, in 2016, the Astros were fresh off their first playoff berth in years, looking to continue that success with a young core. By July 21st, as in 2026, they were 3.5 games out of first place. That year, they were chasing the Rangers, who had become their new nemesis in the division, a team that bested them down the stretch to take the 2015 AL West title.
In 2016, Houston started slow and built their way back to 51-44 by late July. Believing their core to be strong and capable of making more playoff runs, the Astros essentially stood pat. They made what appeared to be, on the surface, a few minor deals but turned out to be team-altering. Houston traded roughed-up reliever Josh Fields to the Dodgers for Yordan Alvarez.
Fields had struggled after being a Rule Five draft pick from the Boston Red Sox but had been used frequently over the course of four seasons with the Astros. From his debut in 2013 to his trade in 2016, Fields went 9-10 with a 4.53 ERA and 87 ERA+ with Houston. The right-handed pitcher out of the University of Georgia had posted a 6.89 ERA in 2016 in 15 games.
Fields went on to pitch well for the Dodgers in 2016, posting a 2.79 ERA in 22 games to go along with four scoreless outings in the playoffs as the Dodgers reached the NLCS. He would go on to have a solid 2017 regular season before surrendering two critical home runs to the Astros in the 2017 World Series.
2016 Post Trade Deadline Results
After the 2016 trade, the Astros played .500 ball down the stretch and ended up 11 games out of first place in the division with an 84-78 record.
Yordan Alvarez’s achievements in the blue and orange go without saying. The Astros clearly won the trade. But even if they didn’t, making a few seller deals and standing pat was the right move. The Astros weren’t making up the 11-game differential by being buyers. Everything worked out in the long run for Houston. If they had dealt in 2016, we could have seen a player like Kyler Tucker, the Astros’ number three prospect at the time, dealt away.
This year, the Astros are in a similar situation standings-wise but have a much weaker farm system. Dealing a player like Xavier Neyens to make a splash deal would hinder the Astros’ future for a long shot at making the playoffs. Houston can learn from 2016, resign themselves to maintaining their core and dealing expiring contracts to better the team down the road.
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