Why Oscar Voters Love Villains — Just Not Truly Evil Ones?

How evil is too evil?

For as long as the Academy has handed out little gold men, it has also wrestled with this deceptively simple question.This season the debate resurfaces in dramatic fashion. When Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” premiered in September, Sean Penn was widely viewed as the frontrunner for supporting actor, delivering a ferocious turn as a man steeped in cruelty and moral decay. But as the precursors have rolled in, co-star Benicio Del Toro — playing a character the audience loves and roots for — has swept nearly every major critics group.

The shift raises a familiar and intriguing possibility: Do Oscar voters quietly resist honoring performances that embody outand-out, unflinching villainy?

History suggests they might.

Consider Ralph Fiennes in “Schindler’s List,” whose chilling portrayal of Amon Göth remains one of cinema’s most indelible depictions of evil. Despite universal acclaim and Steven Spielberg’s Holocaust epic dominating the 1993 awards season, Fiennes lost the supporting actor Oscar to Tommy Lee Jones for “The Fugitive.”

The same pattern emerged two decades later: Michael Fassbender’s terrifying turn as plantation owner Edwin Epps in “12 Years a Slave” earned widespread praise but fell short on Oscar night to Jared Leto as a trans woman battling AIDS in “Dallas Buyers Club.”

Both Fiennes and Fassbender delivered turns that critics deemed essential; both played characters so morally repugnant that voters may have recoiled from endorsing them.

There are some exceptions — though they often reinforce the rule.

Christoph Waltz famously won supporting actor for playing a ruthless Nazi investigator in “Inglourious Basterds.” But his Col. Hans Landa was not merely evil; he was witty and even playful, wrapping the sadistic character in a charismatic sheen that made the performance palatable to audiences and voters.

When Waltz won again for “Django Unchained,” it was for playing the opposite — a bounty hunter with moral clarity — while Leonardo DiCaprio’s flamboyant and viciously racist Calvin Candie went unrecognized. Once again, charm prevailed and monstrousness did not.

If voters consistently reward the seductive version of villainy while rejecting portrayals that leave no room for audience affection, it raises larger questions about how the Academy engages with darkness.Are voters uncomfortable validating cruelty devoid of redemption? Are they seeking moral distance, or reassurance, in their choices?

The divergent trajectories of Penn and Del Toro’s outings in “One Battle After Another” are the latest case study. Penn’s performance is raw, blistering and unapologetically harsh; it demands that viewers confront the worst of human impulses. Del Toro’s work, though equally compelling, is layered with empathy (and “a couple of small beers”).

One elicits dread; the other invites admiration.

This year, we’re seeing a test of just how far Oscar voters will go to reward the groteseque, especially at a time when racial tensions are high. And if past is prologue, the path for truly despicable characters — however brilliantly rendered — remains touchy ground.

Whether that’s a reflection of voter discomfort, industry bias or simply human nature, history suggests that “evildoers” may be compelling on-screen, but at the Oscars, charm wins the day.

This week’s Oscar predictions are below.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)

Oscars Predictions Tracking
(Dec. 18, 2025)

Best Picture
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Oliver Laxe, “Sirât” (Neon)
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)

Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)

Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)

Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Andrew Scott, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***

Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)

Original Screenplay
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) — Jafar Panahi
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler ***

Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Guillermo Del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar ***

Casting
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Nina Gold
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Gabriel Domingues
“Sirât” (Neon) — Nadia Acimi, Luis Bertolo and Erika Boulic
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.) — Allison Jones

Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle” (Crunchyroll)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***

Production Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jack Fisk and Adam Willis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Hannah Bleachler and Monique Champagne
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales

Cinematography
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Łukasz Żal
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw ***
“Sirât” (Neon) — Mauro Herce
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso

Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Malgosia Turzanska
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Colleen Atwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ruth E. Carter
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Paul Tazewell ***

Film Editing
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) — Amir Etminan
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Michael P. Shawver

Makeup and Hairstyling
“The Alto Knights” (Warner Bros.) — Lori Hicks, Richard Redlefsen
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Cliona Furey, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, ***
“The Smashing Machine” (A24) — Felix Fox, Kazu Hiro, Mia Neal
“The Ugly Stepsister” (IFC) — Thomas Foldberg, Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Laura Blount, Mark Coulier, Frances Hannon

Sound
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Sirât” (Neon)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Tron: Ares” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Original Score
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
“Sirât” (Neon) — Kangding Ray

Original Song
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment) — Diane Warren
“The Girl In The Bubble” from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Stephen Schwartz
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick ***
“I Lied To You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from “Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films) — Sara Bareilles, Brandi Carlile and Andrea Gibson

Documentary Feature
“The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
“Cutting Through Rocks” (Autlook Films)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“Seeds” (Interior Films)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)

International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon) ***
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon)
“Sirāt” from Spain (Neon)
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)

Animated Short
“Cardboard” (Locksmith Animation) — dir. J.P. Vine
“Éiru” (GKids) — dir. Giovanna Ferrari ***
“Hurikán” (AEON Production) — dir. Jan Saska
“The Night Boots” (Am Stram Gram) — dir. Pierre-Luc Granjon
“The Quinta’s Ghost” (Illusorium Films) — dir. James A. Castillo

Documentary Short
“All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) — dir. Joshua Seftel ***
“All the Walls Came Down” (Interloper Films) — dir. Ondi Timoner
“Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” (HBO Documentary Films) — dir. Brent Renaud and Craig Renaud
“Chasing Time” (Exposure Labs) — dir. Sarah Keo and Jeff Orlowski-Yang
“The Devil is Busy” (HBO Documentary Films) — dir. Geeta Gandbhir, Christalyn Hampton

Live Action Short
“The Boy with White Skin” (Manifest)
“Extremist” (The New Yorker)
“Rock, Paper, Scissors” (National Film and Television School)
“The Singers” (Highway West Entertainment)
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” (The New Yorker) ***

Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” (13); “Sinners” (12); “Hamnet” (10); “Wicked: For Good” (9); “Sentimental Value” (7)

Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (33); Neon (22); Netflix (13); Focus Features (11); Universal Pictures (9); A24 (7)