WTF is weather targeting?

To build strong consumer connections even as loyalty and attention become harder to win, brands need alternative signals that illuminate and predict consumers’ mindsets and motivations. A privacy-forward, contextual targeting signal that many marketers, across industries, don’t pay enough attention to is weather. 

What many don’t realize is that weather is the most universal behavioral catalyst, impacting what people try, what they buy and how they feel. From that single truth emerged a signal that goes deeper than weather data — weather targeting. By tapping into the advanced power of AI-driven behavioral science, weather targeting can predict the exact moments when weather shifts a consumer’s mindset toward purchase, delivering deeper emotional resonance that drives both immediate sales and long-term brand growth.

In this WTF explainer guide, Digiday and The Weather Company dive into what weather targeting is, its vast benefits, how advertisers can get the most out of the strategy and more. 

Not exactly. If advertisers are only thinking of weather data as related to umbrellas and sunscreen, they’re doing it wrong. It’s a common misconception that weather data is only relevant to certain industries.

But, the truth is that every person and business is impacted by weather every day. Because people around the world react to the weather in predictable ways, every business can benefit from applying weather targeting to its campaigns.

“The interconnectedness of how we feel, what we associate, our emotions, memories and experiences with weather, is a feeling starting from when man was a hunter-gatherer,” said Pranav Yadav, CEO of neuromarketing and neuroanalytics company Neuro-Insight. “Our core behaviors are driven by our instinct to survive.”

Other misconceptions about weather targeting include that it’s a complex and limited process, when it’s much more accessible and effective than many may realize. 

“I think the industry itself is starting to understand weather targeting as a contextual mindset and behavioral solution, in the way that you have on-screen contextual, but also physical and emotional contextual, too,” said Dave Olesnevich, head of product, advertising, data and AI at The Weather Company. “So, it complements the original contextual targeting and has built up the value of contextual targeting; it’s just scalable now. It’s really become quite a robust and powerful solution for global brands.”

Because the weather impacts everyone and is something many people check daily, it’s a valuable, persistent data point to incorporate for more effective, personalized targeting that doesn’t rely on any personally identifiable information, yet feels incredibly relevant to consumers. 

“The biggest misconception is that weather targeting won’t affect my outcomes that much, and to mythbust that, you have to test and learn,” Olesnevich said. “When you bring weather targeting into your campaign — display, CTV, [digital] OOH, search, social — it’s going to drive performance. After overcoming that initial barrier, the scale opportunity is clear because you see the impact on one brand or one campaign, and it’s a no-brainer from there to keep adding it to additional campaigns.”

Weather data generally refers to absolute conditions, like specific temperatures, that can be tied to a predictable, objective weather event. Weather targeting can encompass a broader range of triggers, including consumer insights and research, as well as predictive insights and more. Some examples include product purchase, health, emotion and consumer activity.

One way this can come together in practice is by advertisers choosing the “what” — the messaging, ad content, etc. — and the “who” — target audience — with the weather targeting bringing the “how” and “when.” This strategy uses real-time and predictive weather intelligence to connect brands with consumers when conditions create the ideal physical and emotional context for their messaging.  

While not indicative of all weather targeting providers, some of these triggers might look like the following: 

• Relative targeting triggers go beyond simple data points to help marketers understand how weather impacts behavior based on how it feels compared to what’s normal for that time of year and location, essentially capturing the vibe of the weather.
• Product purchase triggers use anonymized point-of-sale data from partners, such as NielsenIQ, to link weather conditions to sales uplift for specific products and brands.
• Predictive health signals combine powerful weather science with aggregated, anonymized health data to anticipate future health-related weather triggers in a specific ZIP code.
• Mindset is determined by identifying what weather is likely to evoke different decision-driving psychological responses. These signals enable marketers to reach consumers with messages that align with a particular emotional state and drive specific actions.
• Consumer activity triggers identify when weather conditions are prime for certain behaviors such as food delivery, outdoor sports or home-related activities.

Weather targeting combines historical and predictive weather intelligence with previously fragmented data points, like sales data, foot traffic and anonymized third-party data, to become even more powerful when used as an accelerator for targeting rather than on its own. For example, a brand could request the creation of a product signal that is relevant to their business (like fire ant repellent). This can lead to more customized solutions, such as providing their weather partner with first-party sales data to analyze alongside weather data, creating a specific signal that fires when weather conditions influence sales of a specific product at the ZIP code level. 

First-party data, AI and partnerships are all avenues to explore to maximize the impact of weather data and provide a complete picture of a marketer’s audience. And, because of the hyperlocal nature of weather, weather targeting delivers consumers messaging that resonates on a deeper, highly contextual level, increasing relevance and driving engagement.

Through this data unification, brands can unlock new insights to power even more unique, relevant and powerful campaigns that influence behavior and drive ROI. Plus, this tactic isn’t limited to only weather sites and apps. Weather targeting is compatible with almost all digital platforms, DSPs and SSPs. It’s sophisticated enough to use across the digital ecosystem and on any channel on which marketers want to run their campaigns.

“We produce the world’s most accurate weather forecast, and then it gets combined with other anonymized and aggregated data sets when you need it to,” Olesnevich said. “We also marry it with aggregated data from Nielsen, Circana or Meredith, where there’s no PII; it’s the insights we take in and blend with our weather data. It’s a great solution for those who want to make sure they’re delivering the most privacy-forward campaigns that also drive performance.” 

Weather data is one of the most durable, globally available and persuasive indicators accessible to marketers, which makes weather targeting a tactic they can leverage to influence consumer behavior and, ultimately, action. 

In fact, outside of the economy, weather is the second-biggest driver of consumer behavior, according to the British Retail Consortium. 

New research from The Weather Company and Neuro-Insight reveals just how deeply the forecast shapes people and their response to marketing — emotionally and at a neurological level. 

By aligning with specific weather-influenced mindsets, marketers have the unique opportunity to customize their strategies to match weather-specific neurostates, boosting the effectiveness of every impression and delivering an overall ROI lift of 10% or more. 

And while weather data itself will always be free of PII, the upleveled intelligent weather signal also remains privacy-forward, even when combined with other data sources — becoming a force multiplier, which adds to its benefits and versatility. While it’s a powerful signal on its own, weather targeting is complementary to almost every other targeting method an advertiser uses. 

These strengths combined are what make weather a universal, contextually relevant data signal and also a hyper-performant targeting signal that drives results across industries and business KPIs: 89% increase in incremental visits for a quick-service restaurant brand, 10% increase in product sales for a cold and flu brand, and a 28% increase in purchase intent for a pharmaceutical brand (according to results from participating clients of The Weather Company).

Weather is the new evolution of contextual targeting. It simultaneously drives macro-economic forces, the minute details of daily routines and the emotional states that ultimately dictate consumer intent, even influencing the way advertising is perceived. It predicts product relevance, inspires action and connects with consumers during emotive moments to provide brands with more relevant, privacy-compliant information. 

CTV campaigns are a great example. While in-content targeting might place an ad for products relevant to the genre the viewer enjoys, weather targeting can add a crucial layer of physical and emotional context. If a user is selecting a movie on a cold, rainy evening, an ad for a cozy, indoor-themed movie or food delivery service would be far more relevant and compelling.

To help put this all into perspective, here are several elements involved in producing the desired results with weather targeting:

• Tap the power of AI to analyze previously fragmented data sets to identify optimal weather condition mixes known to drive incremental sales lift at the ZIP code level. 
• Activate brand messaging to reach consumers during daily weather-influenced moments, like outdoor activities, shopping trips and specific purchase occasions. 
• Support people and become essential by addressing real-world problems, like allergies, driving conditions or low motivation. 
• All of this combined helps marketers tap into the emotional influence of weather to build deeper brand connections. 

Some additional insights from the Neuro-Insight study with The Weather Company expand on the connection between weather and mindsets. For example, clear, sunny weather activates the engagement and memory centers of the brain, making people more open, spontaneous and emotionally present. The effect is especially pronounced for Gen Z — they literally feel the weather more intensely. In this same weather, compared to the general population, they have an even higher desire to be present in the moment and absorb information. This is a time when people are energized and willing to try new things, so it’s beneficial for brands trying to reach new audiences. This is also a time when consumers are more likely to make impulse purchases. It’s a peak moment for brand storytelling or emotionally resonant messaging, and can translate into a 10% increase in ROI for marketers. 

On the other side of the spectrum, rainy and snowy weather activates emotional response centers, where people crave stability and generally reach for familiar brands and products that offer comfort and alleviate stress. This mindset responds best to a matched emotional tone, such as purpose-driven, empathetic communication with storytelling depth. Ads that emotionally connect, support and alleviate stress from rainy, snowy, stormy moments can deliver an increased ROI of 18% or more.

It’s important to know that the same ad can’t be expected to work every day of the week — in fact, a misalignment of weather context and marketing approach can result in marketing that’s 11% less memorable and a 10% decrease in purchase intent.

If internal buy-in is the struggle, the key may be in the team’s test budget. When trying any new channel, tactic, etc., no marketer is going to go all in — they’re going to start small, test and learn. It’s the same with weather targeting. Carve out some test budget to start using weather targeting and give it a shot. For anyone still skeptical about how this tactic applies to their specific business, it might be best to take a moment to look at things from a consumer’s perspective.

“Think about your own personal life and what the day-to-day, week-to-week and season-to-season weather changes do for you — your activities, your food consumption, beverage consumption, outdoor activities — there’s so much in your own personal life that changes with weather,” said Olesnevich. “Why would that not apply to your business?”

Weather is a universal influencer, but it’s also a subjective experience that changes with location and season. Weather targeting captures these relative conditions to help marketers pinpoint the precise moments when their target audience is ready to act. 

“When the weather is great, people feel great and they’re optimistic,” said Olesnevich. “They want to go out and live their lives and do activities and other things that require an investment. There’s an opportunity for financial institutions to bring forward messaging that helps people live their best lives. In the health care space, weather affects people suffering from chronic conditions, not just the typical seasonal allergies, like type 2 diabetes, for example. So, there’s an opportunity for messaging and maintenance and living better when the weather conditions are going to exacerbate your conditions.”

Leveraging the insight that cold weather can exacerbate symptoms and drive a need for diabetes medications, a type 2 diabetes prescription brand used The Weather Company’s diabetes signals within The Trade Desk for programmatic advertising across multiple media platforms, which proved so successful that it launched a second type 2 diabetes brand using the same targeting strategy. 

• The campaign primarily measured cost per unique patient reach, analyzing media exposure and its impact on diagnosed audiences, new and total prescriptions. 
• Results included: 42% more efficient unique reach of qualified audiences on video versus the brand’s average, 28% more efficient unique reach of qualified audiences on CTV versus the brand’s average and 23% more efficient unique reach of qualified audiences on display compared to the brand’s average. 

Because weather-informed advertising ensures ads fire at the right time and in the right place, ads only activate in markets receptive to receiving them. 

People may think they understand how weather drives buying behavior — cold drinks on a hot day, insurance policies when severe weather strikes, movie tickets or streaming rentals on dreary days, but Olesnevich cautions, “Don’t assume you know everything. For example, ice cream sales actually go up around winter storms. People are going to be hunkered down for a few days, and what do they want? Their favorite comfort foods, so that’s a great time to go ahead and ramp up ice cream advertising. But it goes beyond the weather signals you can see and feel. It’s about combining that weather with other datapoints, like sales, footfall and site traffic.”

Dog treat brand Milk-Bone uniquely used weather targeting to connect with pet owners. Sixty-eight percent of pet owners say knowing the weather is important for planning their pet’s daily routine, and 93% are specifically monitoring thunderstorms. Because thunderstorms can make dogs feel anxious, pet parents need ways to ease their pet’s emotions when storms are forecasted. Milk-Bone leveraged a weather strategy rooted in the connection between weather and pet care to increase awareness and sales within a market filled with treat options. 

And because dogs aren’t the only ones impacted by storms — this weather tends to keep people indoors watching movies, for example — Milk-Bone met dog owners across in-stream CTV ads. These ads prompted owners throughout stormy days that the brand’s Comfort Chews can help ease their pet’s emotions. 

• Other activations included: Ads on The Weather Channel app home screen to tap into pet parents’ habitual routines, syncing Comfort Chews ads with real-time weather conditions for contextual messaging, offering relevant reminders to care for their dogs. 
• The campaign drove purchase intent and ad recall of Milk-Bone’s long-lasting Comfort Chews across mobile and CTV, with a 2.8% lift in ad recall from CTV, a 2.9% increase in ad recall from the app home screen ads and a 14% higher CTR via those home screen ads compared to benchmarks. 

“A great way to bring weather targeting into creative is to bring it as a signal into your DCO,” Olesnevich said. “So, even if the creative itself doesn’t incorporate a weather element, you can have that signal helping determine which ad creative is served to the individual at that time. There’s a lot of opportunity to bring in weather targeting into the creative space, too.”

Advanced AI does the work for marketers so they don’t have to worry about checking radar or becoming meteorologists themselves. Weather intelligence allows them to dynamically target down to the ZIP code level, which refreshes in as fast as 15 minutes. Proprietary AI models analyze numerous variables to take simple conditions, like “rain,” and determine the emotional and behavioral patterns that link weather to consumer decisions. 

“It’s always on, so if you’re thinking, ‘How am I going to target the right areas at the right time, do I have to make sure I’m watching the weather, am I looking at the right ZIP codes and the right DMAs?’ A weather targeting strategy will do all that for you,” said Olesnevich. “No need to worry about when it’s snowing or raining, or when it’s soup or ice cream weather, it’s all taken care of.” 

In addition to this technology automating the targeting strategy, it also doesn’t require marketers to bring anything to get started. The right partner or vendor will be able to advise on the best plan of action; marketers just need to come to them with their campaign strategy as they would in any other situation. 

Some partners, like The Weather Company, can take targeting one step further. If marketers want a more sophisticated approach, they can bring first-party data. This can then be run through an automated modeling system to produce custom solutions, which can also be brought to any desired buying platform. There are many easy ways to get started with weather targeting. More advanced methods are available to help drive more value.

A partner or vendor with accurate data, driven by real-world, proven consumer insights; scale to make weather accessible to all; a depth of targeting capabilities and custom capabilities for brands that want to integrate their first-party data, goes a long way.

“It’s less physically about what to bring, but more about the mentality — bring curiosity and an open mind,” Olesnevich said. “Have an open mind to testing and saying, ‘I want to see what weather targeting does for my business and for my advertising campaigns.’ And we see time and time again when there’s this receptivity to testing and partnering, there’s a ton of growth opportunity.” 

Some other things to look for in a partner or vendor include: 

• Trusted, robust and scalable technology
• Near-real-time refresh rates to enable real-time optimization
• Broad reach across the ecosystem

As marketers incorporate weather targeting into their campaigns, it’s crucial to remember that whomever they partner with for their weather data must be able to provide actionable insights.

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About The Weather Company

The Weather Company helps people and businesses around the world make more informed decisions and take action in the face of weather. With its deep industry expertise and highly accurate, high-volume weather data combined with advanced technology and AI, The Weather Company provides insights and solutions that harness the power of weather in a scalable, privacy-forward way — including its Weather Targeting product. The world’s most accurate forecaster, the company serves hundreds of enterprise customers and is trusted by hundreds of millions of monthly active users via digital properties from The Weather Channel app and weather.com, Weather Underground, and Storm Radar.